Religion, or lack thereof?

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Rip
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Re: Religion, or lack thereof?

Post by Rip » Sun Aug 19, 2012 9:05 pm

sysyphus wrote:I mean look at Angela Merkel. My personal feeling is that the only reason the chancellor remains stubbornly committed to a unified Europe
May I point out that Hitler also was committed to unified Europe under German rule.
and by extension continues to bail out countries like Greece
Greece hasn't been bailed out. It as deeply in debt as ever. What has been receiving bailouts are the large European banks, especially German banks. Merkel has been fairly successful in finding helpful dimwitted fools from other countries, so that whole bill would not be paid by German taxpayers.
who have only themselves to blame
They have plenty to blame on their own behaviour, but for nothing more than for the decision to join this ill-conceived currency union in the first place. Currency union that is trimmed to serve German interests. When Germany had problems in the previous decade, the monetary policy offered them support (the economic and property bubbles in the European periphery it helped to generate were of no concern). Now that that periphery is deeply depressed, keeping German inflation down is the only real concern.
It's as if the Germans feel they own rest of Europe
Fixed that for you.



Re: Religion, or lack thereof?

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sysyphus
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Re: Religion, or lack thereof?

Post by sysyphus » Mon Aug 20, 2012 3:11 pm

Rip wrote:May I point out that Hitler also was committed to unified Europe under German rule.
Yes, you said it right, a Europe unified under the misguided might of the swastika. I'd say that's positively different from what Merkel is aiming at. Thankfully, we have evolved from waging war on the battlefield to dominating others in a market economy.
Rip wrote:Greece hasn't been bailed out. It as deeply in debt as ever. What has been receiving bailouts are the large European banks, especially German banks. Merkel has been fairly successful in finding helpful dimwitted fools from other countries, so that whole bill would not be paid by German taxpayers.
But didn't they get a bailout package approved after the elections, with all those crippling austerity sanctions? Whatever may happen, it is just a restructuring of the debt, it goes nowhere. A circular cycle which would never break unless the Greeks produce the money themselves and pay it off.
Rip wrote:They have plenty to blame on their own behaviour, but for nothing more than for the decision to join this ill-conceived currency union in the first place. Currency union that is trimmed to serve German interests...
What about the unbridled spending sprees successive governments went on after adopting the Euro? It kinda got to their head, didn't it? This debt didn't accumulate overnight. It took years of overspending and brushing the problem under the carpet.
I can totally empathize with the German taxpayers' revolt at the whole mess. Why should their hard earned money be used to rescue other people? Finland has arguably the second strongest economy. How do the Finns feel about having their earnings sustain people from other nations?
Rip wrote:It's as if the Germans feel they own rest of Europe.
Fixed that for you.
Lol! An insight into the collective European opinion? You are right Germany would suffer from hypeinflation if the Euro was abandoned or the Germans were to leave it voluntary, as some economists are now suggesting. But see their economy is a behemoth, and it would swallow whole all such shocks in the long run. I reckon it is them who should leave Euro for the greater good. They can cope with reintroducing the Deutsche Mark, other weaker states can't.

My knowledge of the Euro meltdown is at best rudimentary. Please correct any erroneous notions I have, as I am sure there'd be many :)
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Rip
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Re: Religion, or lack thereof?

Post by Rip » Tue Aug 21, 2012 7:33 am

sysyphus wrote: But didn't they get a bailout package approved after the elections, with all those crippling austerity sanctions?
Greece is more heavily in debt that it was at the beginning of the first austerity package and "bailout". The got some money to pay off some of the older debts, therefore the bailout was a bailout of the banks that got their exposure reduced at the expense of the European tax payers. Greece itself is in even deeper hole than they were 1.5 years ago
Whatever may happen, it is just a restructuring of the debt, it goes nowhere.
It goes to the debt heaven when you do a reasonable restructuring (writing off) of the debt based on the fact that the party that borrowed the money is bankrupt.
A circular cycle which would never break unless the Greeks produce the money themselves and pay it off.
Well, they will need their own currency anyway to regain competitiveness. That is what they need, getting people back to work and debt's written off to a level that is manageable. They are getting neither in this bailout regime.
Rip wrote:They have plenty to blame on their own behaviour, but for nothing more than for the decision to join this ill-conceived currency union in the first place. Currency union that is trimmed to serve German interests...
What about the unbridled spending sprees successive governments went on after adopting the Euro? It kinda got to their head, didn't it? This debt didn't accumulate overnight. It took years of overspending and brushing the problem under the carpet.
Goverment of Greece did plenty of bad things itself, but with an own floating currency the interest rates in 2000's would not have been in those for them ridiculously low levels as they were, and changes in exchange rates would have automatically brought more balance to the economy (relatvie wage levels, current account etc.). Both the boom and bust would have been much more muted.

Besides, in the big Euro crisis picture, Greece is only a small part. If it were question of only Greece this Frankestein's creation could still survive, but it is not. In Spain and Ireland prior to 2008 they maintained the rules of the old "stability pact" better than they did in Germany itself.
I can totally empathize with the German taxpayers' revolt at the whole mess. Why should their hard earned money be used to rescue other people?
As I said, they are really rescuing their own banks.
How do the Finns feel about having their earnings sustain people from other nations?
Especially to keep the bonuses to bankers roll on? If I say that considerably better people than our current prime minister have been shot for treason in this country, do I make myself clear enough?
Rip wrote:You are right Germany would suffer from hypeinflation if the Euro was abandoned or the Germans were to leave it voluntary, as some economists are now suggesting.
Hyperinflation? No, I do not definitely think so. (Which economists by the way, probably some who have been forecasting consistently poorly for past few years at least?). Germany leaving euro would see at least initial strengthening of the new Deutsch Mark, and the corresponding dampening of their own economy.
I reckon it is them who should leave Euro for the greater good. They can cope with reintroducing the Deutsche Mark, other weaker states can't.
Well, the weaker states can't cope with the current regime. But I tend to agree, that the transition could be more orderly if the stronger countries, like Germany and Finland, left euro first. Greece should have debt write off's anyway, most of the other "olive countries" could probably then deflate themselves from the current mess.


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sysyphus
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Re: Religion, or lack thereof?

Post by sysyphus » Wed Aug 22, 2012 7:24 am

Rip, you have aided my understanding of the euro debacle to a far greater extent than any academic economist has done uptil now. Thank you
Just one question, do you really see either Germany or Finland leaving voluntarily? Considering what's at stake for the Germans and how bad it would look for those Finnish politicians who spent considerable time and energy convincing the people to embrace the euro? Will they risk the public fallout?
Admitting they were wrong all along would be political suicide, ending their careers effectively.
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Upphew
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Re: Religion, or lack thereof?

Post by Upphew » Wed Aug 22, 2012 8:59 am

sysyphus wrote:Admitting they were wrong all along would be political suicide, ending their careers effectively.
I prefer politician (and people in general) who can change his/her opinion when presented new facts or arguments and who can admit that previous stance was wrong.
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Pursuivant
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Re: Religion, or lack thereof?

Post by Pursuivant » Wed Aug 22, 2012 9:11 am

Rip wrote: May I point out that Hitler also was committed to unified Europe under German rule.
Image
kein volk, kein reich, ein euro, :twisted:
"By the pricking of my thumbs,
Something wicked this way comes."


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sysyphus
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Re: Religion, or lack thereof?

Post by sysyphus » Wed Aug 22, 2012 10:26 am

Pursuivant wrote:
Rip wrote: May I point out that Hitler also was committed to unified Europe under German rule.
Image
kein volk, kein reich, ein euro, :twisted:
Lol ! There is a fundamental difference between sex and rape :P
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sysyphus
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Re: Religion, or lack thereof?

Post by sysyphus » Wed Aug 22, 2012 10:38 am

Upphew wrote:I prefer politician (and people in general) who can change his/her opinion when presented new facts or arguments and who can admit that previous stance was wrong.
You then my friend, aren't a slave to your emotional self and possess as rational a mind as one can hope from our hopeless kind.
The majority lies in wait like a pack of blood thirsty wolves, ready to pounce on anyone man enough to admit he/she was wrong.
Hats off
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Upphew
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Re: Religion, or lack thereof?

Post by Upphew » Wed Aug 22, 2012 10:44 am

sysyphus wrote:
Upphew wrote:I prefer politician (and people in general) who can change his/her opinion when presented new facts or arguments and who can admit that previous stance was wrong.
You then my friend, aren't a slave to your emotional self and possess as rational a mind as one can hope from our hopeless kind.
The majority lies in wait like a pack of blood thirsty wolves, ready to pounce on anyone man enough to admit he/she was wrong.
Hats off
It won't stop me yelling turncoat though ;)
Gotta keep up the appearances.
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