.. I guess I'd better take a nap.
I've seen 'parasta" used.
Is it incorrect to use 'kannattaa' here?
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how to say "I'd better"
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It depends on what exactly one wants to convey. "Kannattaa" (to me, at least) has the connotation that the action is the best or the most viable option. In context of sleeping, implying that the person needs the rest so it's best to go to sleep. "Parasta" is closer to "might as well".