So, odds on large NOK layoffs tomorrow.

cressers · Post by **cressers** » Wed Dec 03, 2008 11:23 pm

I give 3-1 on 3-4k or more.

**Sponsor:**

TampereOwl · Post by **TampereOwl** » Thu Dec 04, 2008 1:03 am

Any particluh reason?

otyikondo · Post by **otyikondo** » Thu Dec 04, 2008 1:51 am

Thursday is Nokia's annual investor day, in NYC, and Reuters are predicting they are going to elaborate on 4Q demand for handsets, and maybe also trim mid-term profit forecasts. OP is apparently betting the figures will look grim.
Nokia fell a bit today, but not much, so hard to tell what the analysts think they are going to say... Logically if they had expected the worst, it would have been factored in in a mini sell-off today...

We'll see.

sinikettu · Post by **sinikettu** » Thu Dec 04, 2008 8:11 am

December is the usual "boom in sales" period. It seems that there was a significant drop in sales by retailers in Oct and many now have excess stocks, so the December boom is now in doubt.
I suspect that Nokia might put some production workers on extended unpaid holiday over Christmas.
I hope it will not mean permanent lay offs.

Edit just found this via Google..Nokia Romania board announced yesterday it will idle production at Jucu for the Christmas season, between December 22 and January 5.

http://www.wall-street.ro/articol/Engli ... ayoff.html

cressers · Post by **cressers** » Thu Dec 04, 2008 8:34 am

yeah, all the talk of increasing margins in devices, and lowering "base costs".

Given all ubcontractors/constultants/temporary workers are already announced as going - I see very little way other than loyoffs to reduce the "base cost" any further. But I could be wrong.

Rosamunda · Post by **Rosamunda** » Thu Dec 04, 2008 8:36 am

otyikondo wrote:Thursday is Nokia's annual investor day, in NYC, and Reuters are predicting they are going to elaborate on 4Q demand for handsets, and maybe also trim mid-term profit forecasts. OP is apparently betting the figures will look grim.
Nokia fell a bit today, but not much, so hard to tell what the analysts think they are going to say... Logically if they had expected the worst, it would have been factored in in a mini sell-off today...

We'll see.

Market share seems to have more impact on Nokia's share price than total sales and margins. Nokia's sales and margins are strongly affected by its product mix (large volumes of low cost phones in emerging markets). AFAIK Christmas is not such a big deal in many of the emerging markets (eg China) so unlikely that sales will drop substantially there. IMO companies with a larger stake in the UK/USA markets will suffer most.

Not sure what's made in Romania versus Hungary. Haven't seen any layoffs announced for Komarom.

sinikettu · Post by **sinikettu** » Thu Dec 04, 2008 8:59 am

penelope wrote:
Not sure what's made in Romania versus Hungary. Haven't seen any layoffs announced for Komarom.

I have beens trying to find the answer to that question also.
Couple of phone calls reveal following.
Main work at Romainian plant that is effected is final packing, putting phone and accessories into boxes. That work is directly initiated by orders received.
Komoron contact said..Something strange about amosphere, not the usual hussle and bustle, but nothing being said by the management.
By the way Komorom/Romania/Salo supply low percent of their production to China, most of that demand is local produced.

sinikettu · Post by **sinikettu** » Thu Dec 04, 2008 2:10 pm

Long press release just out from Nokia..
Nothing about reductions in staff but ..

"Nokia are moving to reduce cost of goods sold even further, reduce operational expenditure appropriately, and scale back capital expenditure.
Nokia now estimates that fourth quarter 2008 industry mobile device volumes will be lower than the previous estimate .
Nokia expects industry mobile device volumes to decline 5% or more from 2008 levels."

http://www.nokia.com/A4136001?newsid=1275151

cressers · Post by **cressers** » Thu Dec 04, 2008 2:12 pm

excellent news. for once my cynicism it unfounded

Pursuivant · Post by **Pursuivant** » Thu Dec 04, 2008 2:46 pm

they can't loose, they got super marketing

phil needs new glasses, seriously

cressers · Post by **cressers** » Thu Dec 04, 2008 6:10 pm

"safe and soundly."

Awesome

Rather you than me, harder to do than it looks!!

I like these kind of things, far more personal.

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